As the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery Looms…
As we near the 2009 Draft Lottery it is time for the Washington Wizards community to get serious about the future of the franchise. There is an evident window of opportunity for the current squad, made clear by the hiring of Flip Saunders and the extension of Antawn Jamison. It is Ernie Grunfeld’s belief that the Wizards are one piece away from making a deep run in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. One thing is clear, the Wizards need to add a player that can consistently contribute right away. They don’t need another project big man or an offensive-minded guard who needs a few years to learn how to play defense, and they want to get something significant for the value that beholds a top five pick.
This year the Wizards are guaranteed a selection at least in the top five. Unfortunately this draft class is considered to be one of the thinnest and overall lowest-rated of recent years. There is, however, a special talent who is the presumptive number one pick (as Obama was ‘presumptive’ at the Convention). Blake Griffin might be one of the best no. 1 picks in recent memory as he looks to be a potential franchise player. The problems lie in his peers, the draft seems to drop off significantly after the top two or three prospects. I want to look at six possibilities for Washington’s draft, their five possible draft picks and, of course, the possibility of a trade.
- Blake Griffin – For the Wizards, the 2009 Draft Lottery is essentially the Blake Griffin sweepstakes. He would be the answer to their every need, the perfect player to spell Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison and get 7 or 8 rebounds off the bench as a rookie. He’s athletic, dominant on the boards, and as tough as Tuff Juice. He would give the Wizards exactly what the need in the coming seasons while providing for the perfect long-term replacement for Jamison. As the Wizards’ roster stands today, Blake Griffin would match up better than anyone with the likes of Dwight Howard and Lebron James (not saying he could guard them but it is the truth). Griffin would poster-ize Varejao and Ilgauskas and set the tone for the Wizards as a tough-minded, winning team.
I have seen around the internet people comparing Griffin to a more athletic Karl Malone. I have read him described as a bigger Carlos Boozer. I liken him to a slightly shorter but stronger Shawn Kemp. The truth is, BG is quite a unique NBA prospect. It is rare to have his size and strength matched with an incredible leaping ability.
This past season he dominated NCAA basketball in ways not seen since Carmelo Anthony in 2003. Since Melo’ there have been several players who have double-doubled there way to stardom, like Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley, but Griffin has the potential to be much better. The teams of Durant and Beasley both fizzed out in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, Griffin’s did not. Durant had a supporting cast of NBA-bound players while Beasley was surrounded by a squad of Bob Huggins’ McDonald’s All-Americans, Griffin did not. He did what players worthy of a NBA no. 1 pick should do, take dominion over all that get in your way and expose the inferiority of your competition. He looked like a man amongst boys, rising above the playing field (so high he hit his head on the backboard) and leading his team to the Elite 8.
The criticisms levied toward the Oklahoma prospect have lied in mid-range game and inability to create his own offense. Pretty much all Griffin did to score this past year was put up lay-ups and dunks. In the NBA it is crucial for big men to develop a mid-range game to spread the floor and open up opportunities to capitalize on their speed and quickness. First of all, I am not worried about Griffin’s jump-shot, I am confident he will develop something consistent within his first five years as an NBA player. If the Wizards picked him, I find it hard to believe that Dave Hopla wouldn’t be able to get BG knocking down shots from the range of 10-15 feet. Shooting is a skill that many players are able to develop with the work of proper coaching. Look at how Tyler Hansborough has added a jumper to his game, in just four years he became a threat from anywhere inside the three point line, an attribute that will serve him well as a professional. Carlos Boozer, a player many compare to Griffin, enjoyed only moderate success in the NBA until he was able to gain respect for his range.
Realistically, if a Wizard, Griffin would not need to have a jump-shot in his early years. The team already has Antawn Jamison, who is one of the best big men in the game at getting defenders to follow him to the perimeter. Griffin would enjoy a grace period during the last few years of Jamison’s stay in Washington, time to develop a shot and be groomed as the starting power forward. The sky is the limit for BG, in his second year of college he improved his scoring average from 14.7 to 22.7, a sign that there is room for him to develop offensively.
To look at his stats:
2. Ricky Rubio – While Jarvaris Crittenton hints at serviceability, the Wizards might be looking to add a back-up point guard in the upcoming draft. If this draft is deep at any position is has to be point guard as I see Rubio, Lawson, Jennings, and Curry all becoming productive NBA players. Because of this, I have to think Grunfeld is considering adding a player to spell Arenas and keep the game fast when the star is on the bench. If the Wizards are going to make a deep run in the playoffs, or even get out of the first round, they will need another change-of-pace guard who can generate offense when the stars are resting.
Much has been made about how Flip Saunders’ offense is ‘point-guard driven.’ This bodes well for the future of Gilbert Arenas but also hints at the possibility of placing more importance on depth at the position. To win a playoff series the Wizards will have to fill the void of the always reliable, tough-as-**** Antonio Daniels. Saunders will have to wait and see about Mike James or Crittenton or draft a point guard that most suits his game plan.
Rubio is regarded as a special talent because of his natural floor leading skills and incredible passing vision. He has a natural skill for creating offense and opening up the floor on the fast break. I’m sure you all have heard the talk about his nickname, the “Spanish Pistol Pete.” His haircut and flair with the ball have drawn undeniable comparisons and have made the kid a YouTube sensation. The buzz around him has already gained Rubio some fans from the Maravich cult following. I have also heard him compared to Steve Nash as the players are similar in stature and both play a game that is seemingly influenced by soccer. It is believed that he will be the type of point guard that offenses are designed around, someone who will make all of those around him better players.
I think that Rubio could become a star in the NBA in the mold of Rajon Rondo. Rondo is brilliant at dictating the pace of a basketball game. He has incredible speed up the court and is great at breaking down defenses and finding the open man. Rubio has the skills to be the change-of-pace floor general that the Wizards could use him either off the bench or teamed with Gilbert in the backcourt. His long arms could help him to become a pesky perimeter defender as well, something the Wizards could use to help their deficiencies at guarding the three.
3. James Harden – With the after-effects of Roger Mason still in effect and the likely departure of Juan Dixon, the position of shooting guard has become a glaring need for the Wizards. The roster currently holds Deshawn Stevenson, Nick Young, and Mike James. Deshawn can play at a high level, especially defensively, but he is not good enough to start for a team as good as Washington thinks it is. Playoff teams don’t have liabilities in their starting lineup and Stevenson is sometimes an offensive liability. He would best serve the team if his role was reduced to that of second string. His defensive capabilities would be optimized if he was brought off the bench with fresh legs to guard the opponent’s best perimeter scorer. The Wizards need to try and get deeper at the position so that Deshawn can be reduced to a defensive bench player who can hit the occasional three pointer when open.
Nick Young made decent improvements this past season and this coming campaign will be crucial to his future as a Washington Wizard. If he doesn’t work extremely hard this offseason and improve his defense he won’t be at the level needed for him to be the starting 2. This is why I think the Wizards should draft Harden if Rubio and Griffin are gone. Harden possesses the best chance of this class’ shooting guards to come in and be a contributor right away. He has an excellent shot with NBA range and a quick release. His strengths would be clear and visible in the Wizards offense as he would get lost behind the first 3 or 4 options. The Wizards have enough threats to open up the floor for a gifted shooter such as Harden and they could use a dependable guard to replace the hole left by Mason, Jr.
For the third pick, many like the prospects of Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet, however the Wizards are stacked at the position. Stacked in numbers but also in project big’s which many see Thabeet as, a guy who will take a few years to develop. I think best-case-scenario for Thabeet’s rookie year is a season like Brendan Haywood’s two years ago, around 10 pts. and 7 boards a game. As fans, we’d like to hope that Haywood can build on that year and effectively have a better season than Thabeet in 09-10. If either Blatche or McGee steps up we will be decently well off at the position so I think the Wizards should look to address other needs.
4. Jordan Hill – I think that if Griffin and Rubio are gone it drastically changes how the Wizards think of the draft. If we get the third pick Grunfeld will start to consider trading it. If we get the fourth or fifth pick it is pretty likely that offers will be listened to. If he decides to trade the pick or keep it and take a chance on an uncertain player, they should address the forward position. Jordan Hill seems to fit the mold of a David West-type power forward. He has a good mid-range shot and is crafty at cleaning the glass. Hill averaged 11 rebounds a game last year as a junior and really started to come into his own as a big man. Scouts like his size and length and think that he could develop into a nice NBA player. I don’t think that he would be able to give quality minutes right away but his value would be evident if on the Wizards. With Blatche and McGee showing little more than flashes, there is an opportunity down low. Songaila should serve as the primary back-up forward but Hill could emerge as a nice compliment to Jamison. He would come off the bench at power forward and maybe be able to replace Jamison in a few years.
The position of power forward has become much more important in the Eastern Conference over the last few years. The Celtics showed last year how having a group of young big men can be crucial on defense. If the Wizards are going to fare well in their division they will have to accommodate for Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Michael Beasley, and Emeka Okafor. Right now the Wizards aren’t prepared to get physical under the basket during a playoff series in which low post defense determines games.
Keywords: Washington Wizards
