Washington Wizards Get 5th Pick in NBA Draft Lottery

After all of the anticipation had mounted it was a surprising revelation to hear the Washington Wizards envelope be the fifth pick, the worst possible pick for the team to receive.  It instantly shattered to hopes for Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio and started what will surely be a hectic guessing game for the next month.  Where do journalists start in predicting what the Wizards will do?  This draft class becomes increasingly hard to decipher after the second pick. 
Ricky Rubio is not a lock to go to Memphis but it is possible.  If they pass on the Spaniard it is unlikely Oklahoma City will select him to share minutes with Russell Westbrook.  Chad Ford’s first mock draft on ESPN argues that it is possible.  However, it seems impossible he will slip past Sacramento at four.  This morning Doug Gottlieb of ESPN predicted the top 7, here is what he said for the Wizards:

1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Ricky Rubio

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jrue Holiday

4. Sacramento Kings: Brandon Jennings

5. Washington Wizards: Hasheem Thabeet

6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jordan Hill

7. Golden State Warriors: Johnny Flynn

I don’t see Thabeet slipping to Washington but if he is there he would probably be too good of a player to pass up.  Washington Post’s Michael Lee said that Thabeet is the second-best prospect overall in this class.  Having a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year down low would be nice, even though we are overstocked with a whole stable of one-trick pony big men. 
Thabeet, however, will most likely be chosen before the 5^th pick.  The Grizzlies could use help down low, especially on defense as the team struggled this past year.  Chad Ford has him going to here to Memphis.  The Thunder would make sense to draft Thabeet as they went after Tyson Chandler earlier this year in a trade.  They have their pieces on the perimeter with Westbrook, Green, and Durant, it would serve them well to address the inside.  I think a Thunder lineup with Thabeet inserted in would a significant enough change to turn them in the right direction. 
I think that regardless of order Griffin, Rubio, and Thabeet will be gone by the time the Wizards make their selection.  That changes the pool of prospects for the team to consider.  There list now becomes a lot bigger and probably includes around ten prospects.  Certainly you have to include Brandon Jennings, Jordan Hill, James Harden, Demar Derozan, and apparently Jrue Holiday.  In fact, after Ford’s prediction of Hill to Sacramento, his next 9 players out of 10 are guards.  That means the Wizards may have to go for either a shooting guard to potentially start ahead of Stevenson and Young or take one of the many promising point guards that flood this year’s lottery.  It may come down to a decision between Flynn, Jennings, Tyreke Evans, or Stephen Curry to back up Gilbert Arenas.  I also think that Ty Lawson will move up the ranks but not all the way to the top 5.  As far as that crop, I don’t know which one would work best for the Wizards.  It makes sense that Flip Saunders would draft a point guard who would best suit his offense, someone who would be able to run his schemes efficiently while Arenas is one the bench.
As far as shooting guards there are a few out there, all with their noted deficiencies.  Grunfeld will be looking at guys like Derozan, Holiday, Harden, and Gerald Henderson.  What the Wizards want out of the shooting guard position is unclear.  They have Stevenson who can be an asset on defense but is not a scoring threat.  They have Nick Young who shows signs of being a good scorer but is a liability on defense.  It seems that many in the know believe Jrue Holiday is going to climb the draft boards this year, much like Russell Westbrook did last time around.  It is said that he had a bad season last year considering the expectations but is a great prospect for his diverse skill set.  Drafting him would give us an upgrade at the position, especially defensively.
Ford explains that the Wizards drafting James Harden at 5^th is the “obvious pick.”  He is the player I listed as third on the Wizards wish list.  He seems to fit the mold of a Ray Allen or Michael Redd, a reliable shooter that can make his own offense.  Maybe he can come in and be an even better Roger Mason, we will have to see.  Honestly, I wish we could trade down and get a second tier player like Dejuan Blair or Stephen Curry.  Use the pick to get some veteran value or cap relief while still adding a player that could make an impact right away.  Nonetheless, the next month will be full of blind speculation, with none of us having a clue at to what Grunfeld decides to do with the pick.  I am confident he will get value for it at the very least but hopefully it will be a player that can help the Wizards take the next step and become competitive in the playoffs.