2001-02 - 3.7 apg2002-03 - 6.3 apg2003-04 - 5.0 apg2004-05 - 5.1 apg2005-06 - 6.1 apg2006-07 - 6.0 apg I believe he will average a career high in assists (if you don’t include last year’s 10 apg) because he has the best supporting cast of his career. Now instead of throwing the ball to Jarvis Hayes, he has Mike Miller who shot 50% from three just two years ago for a 22-60 Memphis Grizzlies team. With more players for opponents to guard, look for Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler to shoot better from outside. Everyone will get better because Gilbert will have to be respected. One other reason why Arenas will get more assists this year is because he is playing under new coach Flip Saunders. Guess who was the coach of the Detroit Pistons when Chauncey Billups had the three best years of his career as far as assists? It was Flip. In 2005-06, the first year Saunders coached the Pistons Billups enjoyed a career high in assists, averaging 8.6 per game. That average was up a full 2.8 assists from the year before. That means that Saunders’ offense immediately affected his assist average, presumably because of its point guard-driven nature. Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense doesn’t offer the same assist opportunities for a point guard as Saunders’ does, and this bodes well for Agent Zero. 2. Andray Blatche will have a “break-out” season –
As far as many Wizards fans are concerned, Andray “7-days-a-week” Blatche is long overdue for a big year. He has consistently improved his averages in scoring, rebounding, and assists each year that he has been in the league. What has yet to occur is a real, significant jump in production from the four year pro out of South Kent Prep. Last season, as with most, he showed flashes of offensive excellence while at the same time putting out efforts that were downright offensive. His total averages amounted to modesty but are definitely signs of improvement. Blatche scored 10 points and grabbed over 5 rebounds per game. These are the stats of a quality role player, however, they were compiled in a season in which his stats were inflated by extra playing time (24 mpg).
This past year forward Paul Millsap of the Utah Jazz really came into his own as a solid NBA big man. He increased his scoring production to 13.5 ppg and brought in a solid 8.6 rebounds per game. These numbers were up from the season before in which he averaged 8.1 and 5.6, respectively. If Andray can continue to develop, a Paul Millsap-type role player could be a premium commodity for Flip Saunders as he makes his gameplan for Boston and Orlando.
It’s easy for me to say that Blatche just needs to work harder, easy for me as I sit comfortably in my office chair and lift nothing but my fingers to type. That said, it seems to be the only logical advice to be given to the young man. He possesses incredible skills for his size and something just seems to be holding him back. He has said publicly that he really feels like he belongs in Washington now and is building a good relationship with the new coach. Maybe that will help, or even the new jersey number and philosophy on work weeks. Whatever he does to get to the next level, his improvement as a role player could help the Wizards tremendously as they try to regain their status as an Eastern Conference contender. 3. The Wizards will get out to a quick start – Despite a new coaching staff and the reintegration of three previously injured starters, I believe the Wizards are poised for a quick start to the regular season. I think there are legitimate reasons why Washington fans should be excited but we must remind ourselves of what went down two years ago against Boston and Denver on national television. Gilbert was back and ready to spoil the Celtics’ home opener and KG and Ray Allen’s debuts in green but what resulted was total embarrassment. That was not the November to remember as the Wiz crawled out to an 0-5 start. This year should be different, though, as much preparation will go in to the early games of the season. This is combined with an eager core of Gilbert, Caron, Antawn, and Brendan that is absolutely sick of losing. You can imagine that Gilbert Arenas wants nothing more than to be back on the court leading this team to victories. It is in his nature to be just dying to play.
Center Brendan Haywood probably feels that he has much to prove this season. His last healthy campaign was a year ago in which he improved his averages to 10 ppg and 7 rpg. That put him right on the verge of becoming one of the more legitimate starting centers in the NBA. To be stripped of the chance to immediately build off that had to be devastating for the big man. It’s conceivable that he will be even better this season with the threats the Wizards pose on the perimeter, opening up the court for the offense.
Anyone who has watched the Wizards consistently over the last two seasons have felt the anguish and frustration endured by Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. These guys seem to want to win bad and to have them surrounded by a healthy roster should be fun to watch. At this point in their careers they mean business, the time is now to contend for playoff success and they aren’t interested in waiting for young players to develop.
If you recall, the Wizards really haven’t jumped out to a terrific start in the Gilbert Arenas era. Their best start was in 2004-5 in which they began the season 10-5. Here are their season starts for the last few years, along with the final records:
2008-09 - 1-10 - 19-63 (5th Southeast)2007-08 - 0-5 - 43-39 (2nd Southeast)2006-07 - 4-9 - 41-41 (2nd Southeast)2005-06 - 5-1 - 42-40 (2nd Southeast)2004-05 - 10-5 - 45-37 (2nd Southeast) With an improved Eastern Conference, it is important for this Washington Wizards team to gather wins from the onset. It is typical of this Wizards team to get out to a bad start and then recover to an average record, only good enough for a 4th or 5th seed in the playoffs. To overcome this trend they must be more consistent in beating the lesser teams. Even at their best point, this team would play up or down to their opponents, a deficiency the best teams are able to overcome. If the Wizards are to win over 50 games this year, which should be the goal, they have to take care of business when, say, the Timberwolves are in town. Let’s take a look at the first ten games for the 2009-10 Wizards:
10/27 - @ Dallas Mavericks10/30 - @ Atlanta Hawks10/31 - New Jersey Nets11/03 - @ Cleveland Cavaliers11/04 - Miami Heat (ESPN)11/06 - @ Indiana Pacers11/08 - Phoenix Suns11/10 - @ Miami Heat11/14 - Detroit Pistons11/18 - Cleveland Cavaliers Out of the first 10 games the Wizards play, 7 of them will be against a 2008-09 playoff team. This stretch includes 5 homes games and 5 away games, featuring a game at Cleveland which is near impossible to win at these days. Though it is hard to predict, the Wizards will seemingly face a challenging start to a season crucial to the future of the franchise. The goal should definitely be to win the Southeast division this year and that would require at least a 55 or even 60 win season. To do that, the Wizards need to be competitive in all 82 games. 4. The Wizards will win between 45 and 50 games – You know, we would all like to think that the Wizards are going to win 55 games and the division but unfortunately I wouldn’t bet on it. I think the potential for that type of success is undeniable, however, with the lack of depth in the frontcourt it would only take an injury or two to shatter those dreams. You can’t necessarily count on injuries and they shouldn’t be predicted but given the Wizards recent history it should be expected. It’s highly possible that an important player will go down at some point, resulting in a 4 or 5 game difference in the record. That’s why I’m going to make the safe prediction and say that the Wizards will do better than the 2004-05 team but just by a few games. I think they will win around 48 games, giving them the best season since the 1970’s. As you probably know, the franchise pretty decent in that decade, making the playoffs every year, the finals four times, and winning one championship. It was that championship team, coached by Dick Motta, that finished the regular season with a record of just 44 wins and 38 losses. 5. A second round playoff exit – It is yet to be seen but the Washington Wizards still seem to be a piece away from challenging the East’s best in the playoffs. As it stands now, this team looks like a very good regular season team. I have concerns, however, about how they would match up with the best teams in a playoff series. The San Antonio Spurs have proven time and time again that the playoffs are a whole new season. It takes more than scoring points to beat teams, you have to be strong on defense and have the proper veteran leadership. I just don’t see the Wiz taking down the Celtics, Magic, or Cavaliers in a playoff series, at least not yet. What is likely to happen is the Wizards will get the 4th or 5th seed and beat the first round opponent, only to be semi-competitive in the second round. I think it will then cause Ernie Grunfeld to make another move, this time for one more quality big man to help them take the next step as a playoff contender.
Sources: nba.com, basketball-reference.com, wikipedia.com
Keywords: Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA, Washington Wizards
