The end of Pitt-Villanova and how teams usually do buzzer-beaters wrong

The Art of the Buzzer-Beater

Ok, let me start by saying I'm not going to write about how to shoot a buzzer-beater. If I knew things the professionals don't about that, the Wizards would have called me in for a tryout by now, especially the way their season is going. No, I assume that the guys who take those shots know all about squaring up their shoulders and hips, following through, and shooting like it's practice (except Kobe, who I think would raise his shooting percentage about 15 points if he took every shot like it was a buzzer-beater). What I've been noticing about buzzer-beaters this year, in college and in the NBA, is that very few teams seem to be well-coached enough to know which buzzer-beater to take.

Let me give you an example of a good solution to this problem first. It's March, so I'm going to use an example from the college game. For the 98% of American hoops fans who prefer amateur hour – oh, is that not what they're calling it these days? Sorry, to let those who prefer the college game know, this will probably never happen again, so don't get used to it. Anyway, I was watching Pitt-Villanova on Saturday, and after almost blowing it with that insane full-court toss (I'll get back to that in a minute), Villanova executed the perfect play for the situation they were in (tie game, 5 seconds left) and made a layup with 6/10 of a second on the clock. The play itself was a classic hook-and-ladder, something seen more often in football but equally effective here. Scottie Reynolds ran the ladder, getting a dish from Dante Cunningham and charging down the floor and into the paint, where he made a tough layup in traffic for the win. A fantastic play, and a great ending to a great game. Except it didn't have to be the end.

See, the truly impressive part of Nova's improbable finish was not Reynolds' shot. It was a tough one, and all the more amazing for the magnitude of the moment, but I've seen a lot of more difficult layups made in equally big moments. The really phenomenal parts of the play were how perfectly it was executed and how perfectly adapted it was for that specific game situation. After the game, Reynolds was asked about the play, and said: “In that situation, you have four dribbles and a shot. That's five seconds. All that goes in your head. That's why we practice that every day in practice so we can make an instinct play.” Exactly! That is where practice is really, really important, when you have to make decisions in a big hurry under a lot of pressure. Well-coached teams already know what those decisions are going to be beforehand, so players like Reynolds don't have to think about how many dribbles they can take or whether they have time for a pass, and can just focus on doing what they do best – making the play on the court.

Nova's play was important because it let Reynolds do his thing with the confidence of knowing what he was supposed to be doing, but it also had to be the right play. If Nova had run that play with 15 seconds remaining, it would have taken too little time off the clock. If they'd run it with 2 seconds left, Reynolds would have had to jack up a half-court shot as soon as he touched the ball. As Reynolds said, it was a play designed to take five seconds, and it was right for that situation. I said before that the game didn't have to end with Reynolds' shot. It did end, because with 6/10 of a second left, Pitt tossed the ball in to a player in their back court who launched a three-quarters-court heave that had no chance. Yes, it hit the top of the backboard, but if Vegas offered me 100-1 odds against that shot going in, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Of course, the next logical question has to be this: yes, the heave-up-a-prayer play isn't going to win you a lot of games, but what else are you gonna do with so little time left?

Luckily, there's a good answer to this, and it's one that very few teams seem to grasp, either on the college or pro level. Let's look at the situation. Fact: you have to score, or the game is over. In Pitt's case, also your season and your hope of a national title. Fact: You have time only for a catch and a shot. This is true when the amount of time left is anywhere from 4/10 of a second (Derek Fisher, anyone?) to about a second and a half (you can probably pump-fake a time or two, but it amounts to the same thing). Imagine you are out on the court. If you have to catch the ball and immediately shoot it, where would be the best place for that to happen? If it's me, I'm picking right under the basket I'm shooting on. Failing that, anywhere inside the 3-point arc would be just fine. If I had to pick one place not to shoot from, it would be...let's see...oh yes, exactly where Pitt threw the ball with their season on the line. In my mind, coaching is about putting your players in the position where they have the best chance to succeed. When a player is forced to put up a prayer with the season on the line, that's a failure of coaching.

So what should Pitt have done? Throw the ball deep. This is a strategy that very few teams in this type of desperate situation attempt, but it's clearly the one with the best chance of success. Consider Pitt's situation: They have one of the best big men in the college game, DeJuan Blair, who in the game has missed exactly 0 of his 9 shots from the field, and grabbed every key rebound down the stretch. He's physically abused every defender or pair of defenders the Wildcats have sent against him all day long. If you throw a long pass to Blair in the paint, are you really telling me he's not coming down with it over whatever Lilliputian Nova has trying to guard him? Sure, he'll have to shoot quickly, and it'll probably be off-balance, but it'll still be a shot from the paint where he's been perfect all day long! Even if it's only a 1 in 10 chance that he makes the catch and the shot (and my guess is it's more like 1 in 3 or 1 in 4), that's much better than the chance of making a running shot from behind half court.

Why don't teams do this? I've seen at least 10 NBA games this season (you gotta love League Pass – you know it's a strange world when you can see “Grizzlies 64 Kings 66, 3Q 6:27” and suddenly know how you're spending your Tuesday night), games where a team is down 1 or 2 with less than 2 seconds left and just inbounds the ball to the point guard in the back court like it's any other possession. I'm a calm and rational adult, so I only yell at my TV and never throw things, but it takes a serious exercise of will. Throw the ball deep! It's like if you're a football team on the other guy's 45 with 5 seconds left and you throw a short cross. Yeah, your guy might break 5 tackles, pick up a few blocks and make it to the end zone, but why didn't you just throw the jump ball to Larry Fitzgerald and give yourself a real chance? Now, not every team has a Fitzgerald or a Blair, but it wouldn't be so hard to set up a play. Run your best athlete across a screen at your 3-point line like you're going to inbound it to him for the heave. All your other players are on your side to draw their men in, except one guy at half court. After crossing the screen, your athlete cuts up court, gets another screen from the player waiting there as the ball is being thrown, and catches a deep football pass in the paint. If you're lucky, the guy guarding him is looking at the ball and doesn't even see the second screen, easy basket. Even if you're unlucky and they're zoning it up or the defender plays it perfectly, at least you've got your best athlete going up for a jump ball, and if he gets it he'll have a reasonable look at the basket. Am I crazy? Isn't this obviously better than a running-contested-past-half court three? Why don't teams practice or at least talk about this?

Of course, I shouldn't say that no one practices this kind of play. Coach K at Duke has been one of the most successful coaches in any sport at any level, and in a situation similar to the one Pitt faced on Saturday, he had his players throw it deep for the higher percentage look. It's the reason you've heard of Christian Laettner. And no, that was not an easy basket, but if coach K had followed the lead of most college and professional coaches across the country and failed to prepare his players for that type of situation, The Shot would not have happened, and instead of winning the championship in '92, Duke would have gone home in the regional finals round, just as Pitt did this year. Oh, and Laettner's shooting from the field before he caught the long pass and hit the game-winner? 9 for 9.